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Why almost nobody pays £501,000 for a house
Across 11,320,378 sales since 2015, prices pile up just below every round number and thin out immediately above it. The effect gets dramatically stronger as prices rise — and, contrary to what almost everyone assumes, the stamp duty thresholds are not where it is strongest.
The finding that is not here
The obvious story is stamp duty: buyers bunch below a threshold to stay in a lower band. The data does not support it. £500,000 — a threshold — shows a 3.78× ratio. £600,000, which is not a threshold, shows 3.94×. £800,000 shows 3.98×. The median ratio at tax thresholds (1.94×) is lower than at ordinary round numbers (2.61×).
So what is being measured is round-number negotiation, not tax avoidance. The thresholds are left in the table below, marked, precisely so you can see they are unremarkable. Isolating a genuine tax effect would need a smooth counterfactual density estimated across the whole distribution; this method does not attempt it, and any figure claiming to show one from a simple below/above count is measuring the same thing this is.
| Price point | Sales just below | Just above | Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| £125,000 | stamp duty threshold | 168,250 | 171,507 | 0.98× |
| £150,000 | ordinary round number | 190,539 | 149,149 | 1.28× |
| £200,000 | ordinary round number | 179,299 | 110,628 | 1.62× |
| £250,000 | stamp duty threshold | 200,103 | 103,080 | 1.94× |
| £300,000 | ordinary round number | 148,823 | 73,537 | 2.02× |
| £350,000 | ordinary round number | 122,403 | 62,687 | 1.95× |
| £400,000 | ordinary round number | 94,614 | 40,526 | 2.33× |
| £450,000 | ordinary round number | 80,322 | 30,801 | 2.61× |
| £500,000 | stamp duty threshold | 65,874 | 17,427 | 3.78× |
| £600,000 | ordinary round number | 44,047 | 11,174 | 3.94× |
| £700,000 | ordinary round number | 24,034 | 6,821 | 3.52× |
| £800,000 | ordinary round number | 17,236 | 4,335 | 3.98× |
| £925,000 | stamp duty threshold | 7,330 | 3,945 | 1.86× |
| £1,000,000 | ordinary round number | 11,872 | 956 | 12.42× |
| £1,250,000 | ordinary round number | 7,946 | 656 | 12.11× |
| £1,500,000 | stamp duty threshold | 6,275 | 316 | 19.86× |
Bulk transfers and nominal consideration excluded throughout. Source: HM Land Registry Price Paid Data. Licence and method.