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Why almost nobody pays £501,000 for a house

Across 11,320,378 sales since 2015, prices pile up just below every round number and thin out immediately above it. The effect gets dramatically stronger as prices rise — and, contrary to what almost everyone assumes, the stamp duty thresholds are not where it is strongest.

11,320,378Sales analysedsince 2015
1.94×At a stamp duty thresholdmedian below:above ratio
2.61×At an ordinary round numbermedian below:above ratio
±£5,000Windoweither side of each figure

The finding that is not here

The obvious story is stamp duty: buyers bunch below a threshold to stay in a lower band. The data does not support it. £500,000 — a threshold — shows a 3.78× ratio. £600,000, which is not a threshold, shows 3.94×. £800,000 shows 3.98×. The median ratio at tax thresholds (1.94×) is lower than at ordinary round numbers (2.61×).

So what is being measured is round-number negotiation, not tax avoidance. The thresholds are left in the table below, marked, precisely so you can see they are unremarkable. Isolating a genuine tax effect would need a smooth counterfactual density estimated across the whole distribution; this method does not attempt it, and any figure claiming to show one from a simple below/above count is measuring the same thing this is.

Price pointSales just belowJust aboveRatio
£125,000stamp duty threshold168,250171,5070.98×
£150,000ordinary round number190,539149,1491.28×
£200,000ordinary round number179,299110,6281.62×
£250,000stamp duty threshold200,103103,0801.94×
£300,000ordinary round number148,82373,5372.02×
£350,000ordinary round number122,40362,6871.95×
£400,000ordinary round number94,61440,5262.33×
£450,000ordinary round number80,32230,8012.61×
£500,000stamp duty threshold65,87417,4273.78×
£600,000ordinary round number44,04711,1743.94×
£700,000ordinary round number24,0346,8213.52×
£800,000ordinary round number17,2364,3353.98×
£925,000stamp duty threshold7,3303,9451.86×
£1,000,000ordinary round number11,87295612.42×
£1,250,000ordinary round number7,94665612.11×
£1,500,000stamp duty threshold6,27531619.86×

Bulk transfers and nominal consideration excluded throughout. Source: HM Land Registry Price Paid Data. Licence and method.